When America catches a cold, Black America catches pneumonia: Trump’s tariffs will prove it again

There’s an old saying that’s haunted Black communities for generations: “When America catches a cold, Black America catches pneumonia.” It’s a sobering truth that echoes through history, from the economic collapse of the Great Depression to the housing crisis of 2008. Each time, policies that destabilize the broader economy have devastated Black families in ways the nation rarely acknowledges. Now, President Trump’s latest announcement of sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China is threatening to repeat this pattern. And here in Minnesota, the fallout could be catastrophic.

Minnesota’s economy is deeply intertwined with trade, especially with Canada and Mexico. Last year alone, the state exported $7 billion in goods to Canada and $3.3 billion to Mexico. Thousands of jobs in our community depend on that flow of goods and services. Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, along with 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and Canadian oil, will put that system under immense strain. Retaliation is inevitable. And when it comes, businesses that rely on exports will be forced to cut costs, and that usually means layoffs.

We’ve seen this happen before. In times of economic uncertainty, Black workers are the first to feel the pain. “Last hired, first fired” isn’t just a saying, it’s a reality rooted in systemic discrimination. That reality was on full display during the COVID-19 pandemic. As Minnesota’s economy tightened in 2020, the Black unemployment rate, which had been showing signs of improvement, more than doubled, hovering between 9% and 10% for much of the year. This wasn’t just a COVID story, it was a continuation of a long-standing trend. Even before the pandemic, the unemployment rate for Black Minnesotans was consistently higher than the rate for white workers, often by a factor of two or more.

During COVID, as businesses shut down or scaled back, Black workers were more likely to lose their jobs and less likely to have the safety nets or savings to fall back on. This is the same risk we face today with Trump’s tariffs. When export-driven industries in Minnesota cut costs, the layoffs won’t be spread evenly. Black workers, especially those in manufacturing and service roles, will be among the first to go. The progress made before the pandemic, when the Black unemployment rate in Minnesota had briefly dropped as low as 4.5%, could be undone yet again.

But the harm doesn’t stop at job losses. These tariffs function as a massive hidden tax, one that will hit every household in the country but will hit low-income families the hardest. Experts estimate that the average U.S. household will face an $830 increase in costs this year alone. For Black families in Minnesota, who already spend a higher proportion of their income on essentials, that’s a devastating blow.

Food prices are expected to rise as tariffs drive up the cost of imported goods. Appliances, electronics, and other household items will follow suit. And then there’s the cost of energy. Trump’s 10% tariff on Canadian oil will make gasoline and heating fuel more expensive at a time when many families are already struggling to keep up with rising utility bills. For Black Minnesotans living in older, less energy-efficient housing, this is more than an inconvenience, it’s a crisis.

Minnesota’s winters are brutal. Higher heating costs could force some families to make impossible choices: heat their homes or buy groceries, pay the rent or keep the lights on. And it’s not just about short-term hardship. These price increases can have long-term effects, pushing families deeper into debt, threatening housing stability, and widening the racial wealth gap that has plagued this country for generations.

Trump’s tariffs aren’t just bad economics, they’re dangerous for communities that have been systematically excluded from economic protections for decades. Black farmers,, who already face steep barriers to accessing federal relief, are unlikely to see much of the financial support that larger, white-owned farms will get when the damage begins. Small Black-owned businesses, which have less access to credit and capital, will find it harder to survive rising costs and shrinking markets.

This is a story we know all too well. From the agricultural tariffs of the early 20th century to Trump’s 2018 trade war, protectionist policies have been framed as a way to “put America first.” But that phrase has rarely included Black America. Instead, we’re often left to bear the burden of economic decisions that protect the wealthy and powerful while offering little relief to those who need it most.

Minnesota’s leaders should see this moment as a wake-up call. It’s not enough to react once the damage is done. We need policies that protect Black workers and families before the crisis hits. That means ensuring access to relief funds for small Black-owned businesses and farmers, pushing for targeted energy assistance programs, and advocating for long-term solutions to the racial wealth gap.

Because when America catches a cold, Black America doesn’t just catch pneumonia - we’re often left fighting for survival in a system that was never designed to protect us. And unless we learn from history, this latest wave of tariffs will be no different.

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